Open AccessROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS
Author(s) -
Muhammad Kashif Imran,
Jamal Abdul Nasir
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
the professional medical journal/the professional medical journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2071-7733
pISSN - 1024-8919
DOI - 10.29309/tpmj/2015.22.06.1235
Subject(s) - khyber pakhtunkhwa , statistics , medicine , road traffic , descriptive statistics , transport engineering , demography , environmental health , socioeconomics , mathematics , engineering , sociology
Objective: To determine the trend of road traffic accidents (RTAs) and forecastingtheir incidence is an emerging to take safety measures so that general public health relatedmorbidity and mortality can be minimized. Setting: The data for present study has been takenfrom Pakistan bureau of statistics (statistics House). Period: January 2002-2003 to December2011-2012. Methods: A set of eleven curve fitting models namely linear, quadratic, cubic,logarithmic, inverse, exponential growth model, logistics-curve ,and compound models werecarried out for prediction. Results: Under the descriptive analysis, the annual average numberof fatal and non-fatal accidents is 43.3% and 56.7% respectively. In provinces Punjab contributesto a high rate of total number of accidents, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Baluchistanplaced second, third and fourth respectively. Under the curve fitting estimation, the cubicmodel was selected for predicting the annual traffic road accident for all categories i.e.(i) Total Number of Accident (ii) Fatal Accident (iii) Non-Fatal Accident (iv) Killed People(v) Injured People and (vi) The Number of Vehicle Involved. Rising trend in all categoriesare expected in Pakistan. Conclusions: The traffic road accident is expected to rise in Pakistan.