Open AccessANALYSIS OF TREND OF THE PRECIPITATION DATA: A CASE STUDY OF KANGRA DISTRICT, HIMACHAL PRADESH
Author(s) -
Arijit Ganguly,
Ranjana Ray Chaudhuri,
Prateek Sharma
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
international journal of research - granthaalayah
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2394-3629
pISSN - 2350-0530
DOI - 10.29121/granthaalayah.v3.i9.2015.2948
Subject(s) - trend analysis , precipitation , rain gauge , flood myth , environmental science , statistical significance , watershed , climatology , geography , meteorology , statistics , mathematics , geology , archaeology , machine learning , computer science
The current study is carried out to determine the potential trend of rainfall and assess its significance in Kangra district of Himachal Pradesh. Rainfall is a key characteristic of any watershed which plays a significant role in flood frequency, flood control studies and water planning and management. In this case study,mean monthly rainfall has been analysed to determine the variability in magnitude over the period 1950-2005. Trend in mean monthly precipitation data and mean seasonal trends are analysed using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimation for the data period 1950-2005. Analysis of monthly trend in precipitation shows negative trend for the months of July, August, September and October in all the rain gauge stations. However, the falling trend is significant for the month of August for Dharamshala(0.05 level of significance). Interestingly the month of June shows rising trend of rainfall in all the stations, however, at Dharamshala the trend is significant (0.01 level of significance). The winter rainfall in the month of January and February record decreasing trend, with DeraGobipur and Kangra recording significant decreasing trend for the month of January at 0.01 level of significance and 0.05 level of significance respectively. Trend analysis for annual rainfall data shows significant negative trend for Dharamshala.