Open AccessFUZZY LOGIC APPROACH TO ENERGY PLANNING IN NIGERIA
Author(s) -
Ade-Ikuesan Olanike Olufisayo,
Atilola Morufdeen Olatunbosun,
Ajibola Oyedeji,
Adeyemi Hezekiah Oluwole
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of engineering studies and research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2344-4932
pISSN - 2068-7559
DOI - 10.29081/jesr.v26i4.240
Subject(s) - mean absolute percentage error , fuzzy logic , profitability index , margin (machine learning) , gross domestic product , ogun state , population , demand forecasting , statistics , gross margin , econometrics , computer science , operations management , operations research , mathematics , engineering , mean squared error , economics , artificial intelligence , geography , machine learning , finance , economic growth , medicine , local government , environmental health , archaeology
Energy planning is an important tool for power system utility company and consumer’s profitability and satisfaction respectively. This paper is a study of energy planning (forecasting) in Ogun state of Nigeria using Fuzzy Logic model. Population and gross domestic product (GDP) are used as the independent variables to forecast load demand based on the previous load demand. After arranging the variables into 5 membership functions and the 19 rules were created, the fuzzy logic model forecast the annual load demand for the next 10 years with a percentage error margin 0.95 % to 21.79 % which results to a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 8.34 %. The result of the forecast shows that within the next 10 years, 2019 to 2028, an average power load of 1985.66 MWH will be required.