Open AccessIntegrated Model for Water, Food, Energy and Human Development
Author(s) -
K Waimbo,
Dragan Savić,
Fayyaz Ali Memon
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
epic series in engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Conference proceedings
ISSN - 2516-2330
DOI - 10.29007/46pc
Subject(s) - per capita , mean squared error , interdependence , human development (humanity) , population , human development index , work (physics) , econometrics , scatter plot , statistics , food energy , mathematics , economics , economic growth , engineering , demography , mechanical engineering , biochemistry , chemistry , sociology , political science , law
Water, energy and food are basic needs crucial to human survival but also pervade many aspects of human development. Systemically, they are vastly interdependent. A system dynamics model comprises five modules, namely water, food, energy, demographic, and human development, is being constructed. The aim is to evaluate the dynamics behaviour of water, energy and food systems and their linkages to human development at national scale. The model was simulated on annual basis from the year 1990 to 2015. It was then tested against national historical data of Indonesia. Analysis of error using mean-square error, root mean square percent error, and Theil inequality statistics were performed to test model behaviour. Preliminary results show that most of the variables such as total population, income per capita, human development index, and sectoral water demands have root mean square percent error below 10% that indicate the model produces similar behaviour pattern to the actual system. As part of the future work, once the model is fully constructed, it will be applied to assess the impact of a range of policy scenarios and implications on the water, energy and food sectors and on human development in Indonesia.