Open AccessGREY FORECASTING MODEL IMPLEMENTATION FOR FORECAST OF CAPTURED FISHERIES PRODUCTION
Author(s) -
Muhammad Ali Shodiq,
Budi Warsito,
Rahmat Gernowo
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
jurnal ilmiah kursor: menuju solusi teknologi informasi
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2301-6914
DOI - 10.28961/kursor.v9i4.170
Subject(s) - fishing , production (economics) , fishery , fish <actinopterygii> , trips architecture , computer science , environmental science , economics , biology , macroeconomics , parallel computing
The increasing need for fish causes problems related to production in the fisheries sector. In fisheries production all information related to (fishing ground) is well known, but on the other hand it is not easy to predict the amount of production due to unclear information. This is also related to the number of ships that make trips, the length (time) of the trip, the type of fishing gear, weather conditions, the quality of human resources, natural environmental factors, and others. The purpose of this study is to apply Grey forecasting model or GM (1,1) to predict fisheries production. Grey forecasting models are used to build forecast models with limited amounts of data with short-term forecasts that will produce accurate forecasts. This study employs the data of captured fish from 2010 to 2018 to analyze calculations using the GM model (1,1). The results showed that the Grey forecasting model or GM (1.1) produced accurate forecasts with an ARPE error value of 9.60% or the accuracy of the forecast model reached 90.39%.