Open AccessDesenvolvimento de Modelo que Estima o Impacto do CO2 Atmosférico nas Precipitações do Estado de Pernambuco, utilizando ARIMA
Author(s) -
Josiclêda Domiciano Galvíncio,
Gabrielly Gregorio Luz
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
revista brasileira de geografia física
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 1984-2295
DOI - 10.26848/rbgf.v14.4.p1840-1851
Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , physics , environmental science , mathematics , statistics , time series
It is known that the state of Pernambuco will suffer impacts on precipitation due to the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere. In an attempt to contribute to the prognosis of these impacts, this study aims to develop a model that makes a prognosis or creates future scenarios for the state of Pernambuco. For that, the autoregressive method of moving averages, ARIMA, was used. The model adjustment was performed using the normalized Bayesian information criterion function. The results showed that the developed model presents a strong fit. The model was better adjusted for the Agreste and West of the state. The model projects a precipitation decrease trend for the western state of Pernambuco of approximately 15% below the historical average until 2027. The model projected rainfall above the historical average for the Agreste of Pernambuco, of approximately 17%, until 2027. It concludes It is believed that rainy years will occur more frequently in the Agreste region of Pernambuco, and we will have more frequent dry years in the west of the state. In applying the results of this study and simulation with the model SUPER-System of Hydrological Response Units for Pernambuco, it is concluded that there will be more flood peaks in the Mundaú basin until 2027.