Impacto do aumento de CO2 nas Precipitações do estado de Pernambuco

Seeking to mitigate the effects of climate change requires knowing the current situation and the possible consequences of the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere in different areas of knowledge and spatial scales. On a global scale, studies are already widespread. At the regional and local scale, these studies still need to be advanced. Given the above, this study aims to assess the impacts of atmospheric CO2 on rainfall in the state of Pernambuco. Five municipalities in the state were chosen, Recife, Garanhuns, Serra Talhada, Belém do São Francisco and Petrolina. These municipalities represent the mesoregions of the state, which are related to their climatic characteristics. Several statistical methods were applied to identify the relationships between variables and how strong these relationships are, correlation and multivariate. The SUPER-System of Hydrological Response Units for Pernambuco was used to discuss the results with the water balance of Pernambuco basins. The results show that Pernambuco will have two impacting conditions with an increase in atmospheric CO2, Agreste and Litoral, an increase in precipitation and Sertão, a decrease in precipitation. The strongest impact being the Agreste. Considering the SUPER, it was possible to see that around 60% of Pernambuco's precipitation is transformed into evapotranspiration. It is known that the increase in CO2 impacts plant evapotranspiration. Thus, it is possible to state that not only changes in precipitation will impact water resources, but also evapotranspiration, which are important variables in the hydrological cycle of Pernambuco basins.