Open AccessGIS-based prediction of malaria risk in Egypt
Author(s) -
Awad Hassan,
M. A. Kenawy,
H. Kamal,
Abdul Sattar,
Mohamed Sowilem
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
eastern mediterranean health journal/eastern mediterranean health journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.442
H-Index - 47
eISSN - 1687-1634
pISSN - 1020-3397
DOI - 10.26719/2003.9.4.548
Subject(s) - malaria , geographic information system , abiotic component , environmental health , hydrogeology , geography , risk analysis (engineering) , ecology , cartography , medicine , biology , engineering , geotechnical engineering , immunology
Environmental variables in a malaria geographic information system [GIS] database were analysed to discriminate between governorates at high and low risk of malaria. Only Fayoum governorate was categorized as a high risk area for malaria during the last 2 decades. Discriminant models correctly classified 96.3% of the risk categories and indicated that the most important predictor of risk is hydrogeology. Further GIS spatial analysis indicated that the high malaria risk in Fayoum is associated with a unique environmental envelope of biotic [presence of both efficient malaria vectors] and abiotic [hydrogeology and soil] variables. Recommendations for surveillance and control are discussed.