The Transition to Employment: An Analysis of Gross Flows from the House-hold Labour Force Survey

Following a steady increase over about five years, the number of people unemployed finally began to fall towards the end of 1991. Changes in unemployment numbers were reflected, to a degree, in employment numbers. Employment fell during most of the late 1980s, and a sustained rise in employment numbers did not occur until early in 1992. Falls in unemployment occur as the number of people moving into unemployment is exceeded by the number of people moving out of unemployment. Similarly, increases in employment result from a net inflow into employment. Of all the people who are not employed in one period, some have a higher probability than others of being employed in the next period. Using gross-flows data from all the 35 quarters of the Household Labour Force Survey, this paper examines the effect of selected characteristics on the probability of moving into employment, and how the effect of these characteristics has changed over time. Four characteristics are examined: occupation sought, job search method, length of time since last employment and educational attainment.