Open AccessForecasting Migration Flows for New Zealand: Arrivals of New and Returning New Zealanders & Departing by Destinations
Author(s) -
Xintao Zhao,
Ram SriRamaratnam,
Dirk van Seventer
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
labour, employment and work in new zealand
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2463-2600
DOI - 10.26686/lew.v0i0.1688
Subject(s) - destinations , economic geography , irregular migration , demographic economics , business , computer science , geography , economics , tourism , archaeology
The purpose of this paper was to outline the methods and to report results of an econometric attempt to forecast New Zealand migration flows. Flows were decomposed into eight components: two relating to arrivals and six components relating to departures by several destinations. Linear time series regression and the HoltWinters exponential smoothing method were applied to quarterly data from June 1978 to June 2008 or from March 1990 to June 2008. Withinsample mean absolute percentage errors were presented and fullsample estimates from June 1978 to September 2010 or from March 1990 to September 2010 were used to forecast migration flows for each component for the next two years.