Forecast of Changes in the Condition of the Beach Condition of the City of Mykolaiv Under Influence Natural Factors

Purpose. The forecast of a condition of a beach of the city of Nikolayev, the general offers of measures of its protection against degradation.Methods. The forecast of a condition of a beach of the city of Nikolayev is made with use of methods of mathematical statistics and mathematical modeling, the comparative analysis, cartographic and graph analytical researches.Results. The beach of the city of Nikolayev is a strip of coast of the big water object where features of reforming of coasts of reservoirs and the rivers united. The location of the beach on the convex shore of the Bug estuary creates the conditions for the accumulation of sand due to the coastal movement of sediments downstream. However, the width of the estuary and the depth contribute to the formation of wind turbulence in the sector S-Z-Pn, which can destroy the beach. On the beach during the spring floods or in severe down pouring phenomena, long-coastal movement of sands in large volumes is possible depending on the duration of strong currents, but the transportation of sediments along the beach does not significantly affect changes in the outline of its coastal slope.Significant destruction of the beach can occur from storms of rare recurrence in the sector S-SW. Western frontal storms form a profile of relative dynamic equilibrium and contribute to the movement of sands to depth. When the waves approach at an angle to the shoreline is the longitudinal transport of sand. Protection of the beach from erosion can be done by passive or active methods. Further research will focus on a quantitative analysis of the scenario of sand movement along the beach with its accumulation on the protruding part of the beach (point C) and washing away the accumulated sand to a depth under the influence of western storms.Conclusion. Without acceptance of special measures for protection the beach of Nikolayev in the future will degrade.