Open AccessLong-term forecast of heavy metals content in wheat grain under changing climate conditions
Author(s) -
Yuri B. Kirsta,
A.V. Puzanov,
T. A. Rozhdestvenskaya,
M.P. Peleneva
Publication year - 2021
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Conference proceedings
DOI - 10.25743/sdm.2021.58.67.055
Subject(s) - environmental science , edaphic , precipitation , sampling (signal processing) , crop , agriculture , atmospheric sciences , soil science , meteorology , geography , soil water , forestry , geology , filter (signal processing) , computer science , computer vision , archaeology
Using the system approach, we have developed a simulation model for the long-term forecast of the content of toxic chemical elements in grain crop yield. The study was carried out by the example of wheat cultivated in Altai Krai — one of the main grain-producing regions of Russia. Wheat crops were sampled in 10 municipal districts of Altai Krai, which characterize seven different edaphic-climatic zones. The average long-term values of mean monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation for each sampling area were identified using GIS and data of the Interactive Agricultural Ecological Atlas of Russia and Neighboring Countries. A total of 19 chemical elements were considered, i.e. Pb, As, Cd, Hg, Na, Mn, Zn, Cu, Fe, Co, etc. It is shown that content of Pb, Na, Mn and Cu in wheat depend on climatic characteristics of the cultivation area. Regression dependences of element content on the average long-term air temperature and precipitation were established. Based on normalization and spatial generalization of air temperature and precipitation providing the uniform dynamics of their relative monthly values (in percent) throughout the study area, a forecast of their changes was made for 2030. A procedure for grain sampling, GIS technologies for processing meteorological and cartographic data, methods for predicting regional climate changes and establishment of quantitative relationships of chemical elements content in grain with climatic characteristics – all together make up the integral predictive simulation model for toxic substance content in grain crop yield. The model was used for estimation of Pb, Na, Mn, Cu changes in wheat by 2030. The lead (Pb) content in wheat crop delivered to elevators from certain municipal districts will exceed the maximum allowable concentration for breadgrain after 2030. Unlike Pb, Na, Mn, Cu, the content of other metals in wheat grain weakly correlate with long-term changes in air temperature and precipitation; therefore, it can hardly change significantly.