Open AccessCanadian Provincial Population Growth: Fertility, Migration, and Age Structure Effects
Author(s) -
Barry Edmonston
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
canadian studies in population
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.157
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1927-629X
pISSN - 0380-1489
DOI - 10.25336/p6d615
Subject(s) - fertility , age structure , demography , immigration , population , net migration rate , total fertility rate , geography , population structure , population growth , projections of population growth , demographic analysis , demographic economics , research methodology , economics , family planning , sociology , archaeology
The effect of changes in rates of mortality, fertility, and migration depend not only on the age-specific patterns and levels of these rates, but on the age structure of the population. In order to remove the influences of the age structure and concentrate on the impact of the demographic rates themselves, a common practice is to analyze the influences of the rates for a standard age structure. This paper adapts the general approach of using a standard age structure to a stationary population equivalent (SPE) model, and analyzes current population change, using the SPE model, for provinces of Canada. Below-replacement fertility levels are only partially offset by net immigration. The SPE model evidences the decrease in the eventual provincial populations brought about by the below replacement fertility. Out-migration for some provinces to other areas of Canada accentuates their eventual population decreases.