Open AccessThe Estimation of Various Shocks Influence on the Dynamics of Russian Macroeconomic Indicators in 2014–2018
Author(s) -
Yu. А. Dzyuba,
Dmitri Kolyuzhnov
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
mir èkonomiki i upravleniâ
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2658-5375
pISSN - 2542-0429
DOI - 10.25205/2542-0429-2021-21-4-24-46
Subject(s) - economics , dynamic stochastic general equilibrium , shock (circulatory) , inflation (cosmology) , quarter (canadian coin) , estimation , oil price , monetary economics , russian economy , econometrics , macroeconomics , monetary policy , geography , medicine , economic system , physics , archaeology , theoretical physics , management
stract In this paper, we analyze the influence of various macroeconomic shocks caused by anti-Russian sanctions and a sharp decrease in the hydrocarbon prices in the middle of the last decade. We estimate the total loss in the economy and identify the shocks that provoked the decline in GDP and the increase in inflation from 2014 to 2018 using the DSGE approach and the obtained historical decompositions. According to the calculations, the inflation growth from 2014 to 2015 can be interpreted as the sum of the adverse effects of the change in household preferences, and the shock in oil prices. The observed GDP decline from the second quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of 2015 is explained by the synergistic effect of monetary policy shocks and the sharp drop in oil prices. According to our calculations, the total loss in the economy due to the described shocks in real terms is equal to 6.4 trillion rubles in 2011 prices.