Open AccessA Stochastic Differential Equations Model for the Spread of Coronavirus COVID-19): The Case of Iraq
Author(s) -
Ahmed M. Kareem,
Saad Naji Al-Azzawi
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
iraqi journal of science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.152
H-Index - 4
eISSN - 2312-1637
pISSN - 0067-2904
DOI - 10.24996/ijs.2021.62.3.31
Subject(s) - covid-19 , coronavirus , epidemic model , stochastic differential equation , stochastic modelling , mathematics , statistical physics , computer science , virology , physics , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty) , statistics , biology , medicine , outbreak , population , environmental health , pathology
In this paper, we model the spread of coronavirus (COVID -19) by introducing stochasticity into the deterministic differential equation susceptible -infected-recovered (SIR model). The stochastic SIR dynamics are expressed using Itô's formula. We then prove that this stochastic SIR has a unique global positive solution I(t).The main aim of this article is to study the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 in Iraq from 13/8/2020 to 13/9/2020. Our results provide a new insight into this issue, showing that the introduction of stochastic noise into the deterministic model for the spread of COVID-19 can cause the disease to die out, in scenarios where deterministic models predict disease persistence. These results were also clearly illustrated by Computer simulation.