Open AccessKırmızı Et Fiyatlarının GARCH Yöntemiyle Analizi: Türkiye Örneği
Author(s) -
Merve Ayyıldız,
Adnan Çiçek
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
türk tarım - gıda bilim ve teknoloji dergisi
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2148-127X
DOI - 10.24925/turjaf.v6i12.1775-1780.2095
Subject(s) - central bank , humanities , political science , economics , economy , philosophy , monetary policy , monetary economics
Approximately 90% of the red meat consumption in Turkey is the beef. On the basis of consumption, beef is mostly equated with veal and therefore the price of veal is widely used in price evaluations. It is known that the change in veal prices is a very effective factor on consumption. In this study, it was aimed to investigate the fluctuations in veal prices. GARCH (1,1) model was used to determine the price uncertainty in the period between January 2005 and December 2017. According to the model results, veal prices reacted with big jumps to any shock such as economic and political instability, food crisis, natural events. It was determined that the price of veal meat could return to normal for a long time period according to the average price. In the study, foreign trade policies towards gaining a stable structure of red meat prices in Turkey should not be ignored. However, it has been concluded that policies supporting bovine supply should be developed as a complement to supply policies for cattle breeding.