PREDICTION METHOD FOR ACUTE TRAUMATIC PANCREATITIS IN SHOCK-INDUCING POLYTRAUMA

INTRODUCTION. Analysis of consideration of risk factors (RF) in the prediction and treatment of acute traumatic pancreatitis (ATP) based on studied sources has revealed that classic isolated RF cannot completely account for the dynamics and onset of ATP. The OBJECTIVE was to develop a system for early prediction of the probability of developing ATP in case of shockinducing polytrauma. MATERIAL AND METHODS. Our prediction model was based on retrospective analysis of case records of patients had injured in car crashes and slip-and-fall accidents. Clinical and mathematical simulation were employed to describe real cause-effect relations. The study left out isolated minor injuries, which did not imply any pancreatopathy RF. We compiled the selection of 469 shock-inducing polytrauma case records. Stepwise research was carried out to create the prediction system. RESULTS. We identified 15 RF affecting the probability of ATP development. Mathematical processing of obtained quantitative characteristics determined the predictive score (PS) of every RF (PS RF). The resulting cumulative PS RF were used as the basis to build a mathematical prediction model for the probability of ATP development. A lookup table was suggested for practical application in polytrauma surgery. The study carried out with reference on available sources and research works of the authors was used to stipulate basic principles for clinical and mathematical simulation of risk factors causing development of pancreatopathy in shock-inducing polytrauma situation within a traumatic disease case. The issues of pathology predicting were also highlighted. The paper offers a scientifically justified and elaborated predictive evaluation based on the system of risk factors affecting the ATP development. CONCLUSION. Implementation of the scoring evaluation method to identify the risk of pathology onset based on combinations of risk factors considerably increased informative value of predictions and improved the efficiency of individually tailored preventive measures corresponding to the risk of pancreatopathy in shock-inducing polytrauma cases. The authors declare no conflict of interest. The authors confirm that they respect the rights of the people participated in the study, including obtaining informed consent when it is necessary, and the rules of treatment of animals when they are used in the study. Author Guidelines contains the detailed information.