Open AccessPERBANDINGAN METODE SEASONAL ARIMA DAN METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DALAM MERAMALKAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA KE BALI
Author(s) -
Ni Putu Ayu Dewi Cahyantari,
I Wayan Sumarjaya,
I Nyoman Widana
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
e-jurnal matematika
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2303-1751
DOI - 10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i02.p321
Subject(s) - exponential smoothing , autoregressive integrated moving average , tourism , value (mathematics) , mathematics , moving average , geography , statistics , economy , economics , econometrics , time series , archaeology
Tourism is one of the main sectors in increasing a country's economy. For this reason, an estimate of tourist visits to Bali is needed so that it can be used as a benchmark for development and development in the tourism sector. Forecasting the number of foreign tourists coming to Bali using the Seasonal ARIMA method produces an MSE value of 1,250,276,526. While the Winter's Exponential Smoothing method obtained 1,291,150,258. The results of the forecast for the number of foreign tourists coming to Bali in 2020 using the SARIMA method are 588,980, 653,740, 659,817 (January-March 2020).