Open AccessPERBANDINGAN PERAMALAN HASIL PRODUKSI IKAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE PERMULUSAN EKSPONENSIAL HOLT-WINTERS DAN ARIMA
Author(s) -
Dian Rahman,
I Wayan Sumarjaya,
I Komang Gde Sukarsa
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
e-jurnal matematika
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2303-1751
DOI - 10.24843/mtk.2018.v07.i04.p227
Subject(s) - exponential smoothing , autoregressive integrated moving average , fish <actinopterygii> , statistics , mathematics , fishery , environmental science , time series , biology
Every year fish consumption in Indonesia always increases. Basis landing of fish (PPI) Kedonganan is one of the ports where the ships docked and take part in economic activities of fisheries in Bali. The aim of this study is to forecast the amount of fish production so that the fish production can be managed. Some methods that can handle seasonal factors in time series forecasting include Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and ARIMA. The results show that ARIMA(2,0,4)×(3,1,2)12 yields RMSE is 89,358 and MAPE is 0.81% whereas the value of fish outcomes prediction using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method yields RMSE is 119,158 and MAPE is 1.14%.