PERAMALAN JUMLAH KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA YANG BEKUNJUNG KE BALI MENGGUNAKAN FUNGSI TRANSFER

The aim of this research is to model and forecast the number of tourist arrivals to Bali using transfer function model based on exchange rate USD to IDR from January 2009 to December 2015. Transfer function model is a multivariate time series model which can be used to identify the effect of the exchange rate to the number of tourist arrivals to Bali. The first stage in transfer function modeling is identification of ARIMA model in exchange rate USD to IDR variable. The best ARIMA model is chosen based on the smallest Akaike information criterion (AIC). The next stage are as follows identification of transfer function model, estimation of transfer function model, and diagnostic checking for transfer function model. The estimated transfer function model suggests that the number of tourist arrivals to Bali is affected by the exchange rate of the previous eight months. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is equal of the forecasting model to 9,62%.