Flowering and Climate Change

Analysis of data from other studies of flowering and leafing phenology suggests that temperature and photoperiod can influence first-flowering date at up to nine developmental stages prior to flowering. On the assumption that not all species will be affected by environmental conditions at the same stages, it is predicted that there will be different groups of plants that can be expected to react in different ways to climate change. A provisional description is given of a group with ‘mediterranean-type’ phenology and extended flowering periods, which is expected to show extreme reaction of first-flowering date to climate change (warming winters). A second and related group is described without the extended flowering period.