Aspects of investment risks assessment in transport vessels modernization

The article presents a descriptive account of economic feasibility of obsolete transport vessels continuing operation by assessing the investment risks on their modernization efforts. The issues of economic assessment of the shipowner's investment risks when making a management decision on the transport fleet modernization are considered. The algorithm of management of the ship modernization risks is defined. The stages of the risk management of vessel modernization are analyzed and listed: risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk control. Formal foreign systems of risk classification, their content and differences are analyzed. A classification of transport vessel modernization risks has been developed, which allows identifying and structuring information about ship modernization risks and differentiating them by main classification criteria. The discount rate for the transport vessel modernization investment project based on risk premiums has been determined. According to this method, the discount rate is calculated as the sum of the risk-free interest rate, the rate of inflation, and the risk premium that was calculated by an expert method for the modernization project of a mixed-use dry cargo vessel. A quantitative assessment of the modernization risks of a mixed-navigation dry cargo vessel has been performed, the most significant classification features have been identified (modernization risk and industry risk). The currently topical natural risk of coronavirus infection has also been stated.