Open AccessIdentifying and analysing relation between economic security and efficiency of foreign economic activity in Astrakhan region
Author(s) -
Dmitry Vitalyevich Bryantsev,
Rufina Zagitovna Ilyasova
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
vestnik astrahanskogo gosudarstvennogo tehničeskogo universiteta. seriâ: èkonomika
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2309-9798
pISSN - 2073-5537
DOI - 10.24143/2073-5537-2019-4-49-58
Subject(s) - economic security , balance (ability) , position (finance) , economics , balance of trade , value (mathematics) , economic indicator , index (typography) , regression analysis , production (economics) , geopolitics , indicator value , positive correlation , correlation coefficient , econometrics , international trade , statistics , microeconomics , mathematics , macroeconomics , economic growth , politics , computer science , political science , medicine , ecology , finance , world wide web , biology , law , physical medicine and rehabilitation
The article focuses on the need to balance the interests of efficiency and security
of the external economic activity of the Astrakhan region in terms of fierce international competi-tion. The importance of studying the external economic activity of the region is explained by the strategic importance of a borderline geopolitical position of the region. There have been formulated the hypotheses about the positive and negative statistical dependence between socio-economic factors of the region development and resulting figures of external trade of the region; the correlation coefficients between them are defined and interpreted. On the basis of correlation and regression analysis, a statistically significant relationship between the factors of external economic activity and of economic security of the Astrakhan region has been established. There are considered four stages of correlation and regression analysis of the external economic activity in ensuring the economic security of the region: determining the dependence of foreign trade on indicators of economic security in the Astrakhan region; determining the relationship between the volume of exports and indicators of economic security of the region; determining the dependence of the volume of imports on indicators of economic security of the region; determining the relationship between the trade balance and the economic security indicators of the Astrakhan region. The results of the correlation analysis are verified and confirmed by means of the determination coefficient, the value of Fisher F-curve, Student t-test and the standard error indicator. As a result, it has been proposed to use the industrial production index as an indicator of the state of efficiency and security of external economic activity of the region. Correlation and regression analysis was performed using Excel spreadsheets, graphical interpretations of the regression analysis are presented, the result matrix
of the regression analysis of the trade balance of the Astrakhan region is presented.