Open AccessPREDICTIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBJECT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Author(s) -
Delya Valeryevna Ulanova,
Mikhail Igorevich Shikulskiy
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
vestnik astrahanskogo gosudarstvennogo tehničeskogo universiteta
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2687-1076
pISSN - 1812-9498
DOI - 10.24143/1812-9498-2017-1-62-68
Subject(s) - process (computing) , computer science , economic forecasting , set (abstract data type) , order (exchange) , consensus forecast , subject (documents) , data mining , technology forecasting , operations research , data set , econometrics , artificial intelligence , engineering , economics , finance , library science , programming language , operating system
The article analyzes the features of forecasting analysis of the socio-economic development of the RF subject (the Astrakhan region is taken as an example). The article describes the process of conducting analysis of coming data and forecasting; shows the stages of the process (forming a purpose of the study, collecting participating explanatory variables; accumulation of important statistical data; analyzing forecast figures using a certain predicting method; forming and visualizing analysis and prediction reports), requirements to baseline information and most common methods of socio-economic forecast. The existing relationship and interaction between the forecasting indicators should be taken to consideration in order to obtain well-coordinated and consistent data forecasts. On the basis of the analytical platform Deductor there has been developed the information-analytical system, its purpose is running of the script proposed by an analyst, and creating reports. The system calculates the forecasts, which are then combined into one data set. This method is based on information about the model, which allows selecting the optimal forecast with a minimum error.