Relationship between Labor and Economic Growth in Vietnam: Practice and Forecast

This paper analyzes the effects of the fluctuation in labor force and labor productivity on Vietnam's economic growth. Using the neoclassical growth model with data from the General Statistics Office, the study shows that when the number of laborers increases by 1%, the economic growth rate will raise by 2.78%. Combined with predicted figures on changes in Vietnam's labor force in the period of 2009-2049, the results of the study reveal in order to maintain the current economic growth rate, labor productivity needs to increase to 106.2% in the period of 2029-2039 and 111.6% in the period of 2039-2049. Vietnam is losing the advantage of labor force so its long-term economic growth will depend mainly on labor productivity. Improving the quality of labor is the driving force for economic growth. This depends on the combination of specific national policies and strategies, in which education and training policies are highlighted.