Open AccessHIV and Fertility Decline in North-Central Namibia 1980-2004
Author(s) -
Riikka Shemeikka,
Veijo Notkola,
Jan Kuhanen,
Harri Siiskonen
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
finnish yearbook of population research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1796-6191
pISSN - 1796-6183
DOI - 10.23979/fypr.45032
Subject(s) - fertility , demography , total fertility rate , population , sub replacement fertility , geography , birth rate , family planning , sociology , research methodology
The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility and the impact of HIV on this development in North-Central Namibia from 1980 to 2004. The main sources of data consisted of parish registers for eight Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys and the 1991 and 2001 population censuses. Developments in fertility were studied using the total fertility rate (TFR), age-speci? c fertility rates (ASFR), and standardized fertility distributions. The results show that fertility declined from 5.0 in 1980-89 to 4.1 in 1990-99 and to 3.5 in 2000-04. Among women in the 25-29 age group and older, fertility declined, while fertility among adolescents increased. Both age at ? rst marriage and premarital fertility increased during the study period. During the 1990s, HIV infection explained 25-29% of the decline in total fertility. If mortality continues to increase as a result of the HIV epidemic while fertility continues to decline, both because of HIV infection and for other societal reasons, the implications for future population growth rates and the countrys demographic structure are pronounced.