Open AccessMODELING OF REDUCING RISK OF DIRECT IMPACT (HAILSTONES) IN AGRICULTURE
Author(s) -
B.A. Ashabokov,
L.M. Fedchenko,
A.А. Tashilova,
L.A. Kesheva
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
èkologiâ. èkonomika. informatika. tom 1: sistemnyj analiz i modelirovanie èkonomičeskih i èkologičeskih sistem
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2500-395X
DOI - 10.23885/2500-395x-2020-1-5-21-26
Subject(s) - agriculture , climate change , work (physics) , task (project management) , environmental science , risk analysis (engineering) , natural resource economics , business , engineering , economics , geography , mechanical engineering , archaeology , systems engineering , ecology , biology
Due to the fact that the south of Russia is the most important producer of agricultural products, the work discusses the possible consequences of climate change and reduce the risks associated with them. At the same time, it is assumed that the risks associated with climate change can be caused by both “slow” climate changes (increase in surface air temperature) and dangerous weather events (hail), the frequency and destructive force of which increase due to climate change. The paper discusses possible approaches to reducing risks associated with hazardous weather events (hailstones). In the framework of the theory of decision-making, the formulation of the problem of reducing the losses of a given industry from the noted phenomena, which is the task of making decisions in risk conditions, is proposed. The features of information support of this problem and the main tasks that arise in the way of its practical use are discussed. The results of calculations that were performed to analyze the effectiveness of the proposed method to reduce agricultural losses from urban habits are presented. The calculation results showed that the method is quite effective and can be used to reduce agricultural losses from hail.