Analyzing Optimism Bias, Risk Perception and Behavioral Outcomes in the Context of COVID-19 in the Autonomous University of Queretaro’s Community: A Pilot Study

Background: The coronavirus pandemic is a major health crisis that presents new and unprecedented challenges, including challenging how individuals deal with risk. Individuals’ perceptions and behavioral responses to the outbreak are essential determinants of the spread of COVID-19. Understanding individuals’ perceived risk provides insight into their engagement in preventive behavior. Optimism bias plays a significant role in the perceptions of those who underestimate their risk compared to others with similar risk. Objective: This pilot study aims to determine the level of optimism bias, risk perception and risk response for COVID-19 among a convenience sample from the UAQ community - and to analyze the relationship among behavioral outcomes and information seeking intentions with the previous indicators - in order to propose a model of behavior of residents of Queretaro that will be tested in a further study. Methods: This study used a cross-sectional survey designed on the Qualtrics platform. The survey was distributed to the UAQ community through an online platform: The Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro’s (UAQ) official Facebook page. Out of 1048 responses received, a total of 810 valid responses were included in the multivariate linear regression analyses to determine the relationship between optimism bias, risk perception, information seeking intentions, and behavioral outcomes. Results: Results showed that among this population, of which the majority had no previous conditions and did not contract COVID-19, there was a low level of optimism bias. The low levels of optimism bias are associated with a higher level of risk perception. These findings were also associated with high levels of information seeking intentions, specifically receiving information from relatives with public health or medical knowledge. The results show that among this population, fear was a significant determinant impacting safer decision-making and efforts to reduce exposure. Age and education of this population are also important factors to consider when analyzing the results of this study. Conclusion: The study findings indicate that decreased optimism bias is associated with increased risk perception which strengthens individuals’ motivation to take precautionary measures and preventive action during the COVID-19 pandemic. Further research is needed to expand on the theory and test the proposed model as well as inform policy decisions and public health campaigns to stop the spread of COVID-19.