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Forecasting the number of social security retirees: Improving forecasts for better policy making
Author(s) -
Pugh Robert E.
Publication year - 1987
Publication title -
journal of policy analysis and management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.898
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1520-6688
pISSN - 0276-8739
DOI - 10.2307/3323350
Subject(s) - social security , policy making , economics , social policy , actuarial science , public economics , business , market economy
There is evidence that past and current forecasts by the Social Security Administration (SSA) substantially underestimate future U.S. Populations of age 65 and older. The policy significance of this can be seen in the forecasts by other researchers that predict outlays of $30 to $50 billion more for Social Security retirees in the year 2000 than projected by the SSA. Clearly, we need an improved 15‐to 20‐year forecast of the aged—one that combines the use of time‐series forecasting methods and expert opinions on future mortality trends. This forecast would supplement SSA's current long‐term (75‐year) actuarial projections and provide policy makers with improved information for monitoring Social Security and other programs for the aged. This article recommends that independent advisory groups be established to provide SSA with advice to support development of this shorter‐term forecast.