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Reconstructing the history of forest fire frequency: Identifying hazard rate change points using the bayes information criterion
Author(s) -
Reed William J.
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
canadian journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.804
H-Index - 51
eISSN - 1708-945X
pISSN - 0319-5724
DOI - 10.2307/3315984
Subject(s) - bayes' theorem , hazard , statistics , fire history , selection (genetic algorithm) , function (biology) , change detection , constant (computer programming) , computer science , identification (biology) , climate change , mathematics , artificial intelligence , bayesian probability , ecology , biology , evolutionary biology , programming language
A problem in model selection, namely the identification of multiple change points for a piece‐wise constant hazard rate, is discussed. A methodology using the Bayes Information Criterion is developed in an overdispersed survival model (with corresponding quasi‐likelihood function). The technique is used to identify changes in the historical frequency of forest fire. It is applied to two datasets derived from time‐since‐fire maps in the Canadian Rockies.