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Evaluation of Soil Test Information in Agricultural Decision‐Making
Author(s) -
Babcock Bruce A.,
Carriquiry Alicia L.,
Stern Hal S.
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series c (applied statistics)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.205
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1467-9876
pISSN - 0035-9254
DOI - 10.2307/2986067
Subject(s) - agriculture , test (biology) , environmental science , computer science , statistics , mathematics , geology , geography , archaeology , paleontology
SUMMARY The value of soil test information in planning application levels of fertilizer is determined by using agricultural field plot data to estimate the corn production function, to construct plausible prior distributions of nitrate levels and to determine the sampling distribution of soil test results. These quantities are used to determine the posterior distribution of soil nitrate concentrations given the results of a soil test. Optimal decisions concerning application levels of fertilizer are made with respect to this posterior distribution. Average reductions in fertilizer application rates range from 15% to 41%, depending on the form of prior information that is available. These reductions are achieved by increasing the variability of application rates over time. Disregarding the uncertainty that remains after soil testing significantly overstates the expected benefits of soil testing.