The Dead of the Gulag: An Experiment in Statistical Investigation

SUMMARY The estimation of the number of deaths in the Gulag is discussed. A Bayesian framework for analysing available data is constructed. Three demographic works are reviewed; information from them is captured in a prior distribution on the number of deaths. Non‐demographic estimates are incorporated by using the supra‐Bayesian approach. This is a method of subjectively combining information from various sources; conceptual and technical details are described. The result of the analysis is a posterior probability distribution; the obtained posterior 95% credible interval of the number of deaths is (9.7 million, 16.7 million).