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The Dead of the Gulag: An Experiment in Statistical Investigation
Author(s) -
Blyth Stephen
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series c (applied statistics)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.205
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1467-9876
pISSN - 0035-9254
DOI - 10.2307/2986039
Subject(s) - gulag , environmental science , history , archaeology
SUMMARY The estimation of the number of deaths in the Gulag is discussed. A Bayesian framework for analysing available data is constructed. Three demographic works are reviewed; information from them is captured in a prior distribution on the number of deaths. Non‐demographic estimates are incorporated by using the supra‐Bayesian approach. This is a method of subjectively combining information from various sources; conceptual and technical details are described. The result of the analysis is a posterior probability distribution; the obtained posterior 95% credible interval of the number of deaths is (9.7 million, 16.7 million).