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Are Correlations Any Guide to Predictive Value?
Author(s) -
Ferber Robert
Publication year - 1956
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series c (applied statistics)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.205
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1467-9876
pISSN - 0035-9254
DOI - 10.2307/2985494
Subject(s) - statistics , predictive value , value (mathematics) , mathematics , econometrics , medicine
When faced with the choice between various hypotheses purporting to explain the fluctuations of a certain variable, one is tempted to choose the hypothesis that shows the best correlation with known results in given circumstances and to use it to predict future fluctuations. In this article Dr Ferber examines the adequacy of this procedure in practice.