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A Statistical Algorithm for the Early Detection of Outbreaks of Infectious Disease
Author(s) -
Farrington C. P.,
Andrews N. J.,
Beale A. D.,
Catchpole M. A.
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series a (statistics in society)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.103
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1467-985X
pISSN - 0964-1998
DOI - 10.2307/2983331
Subject(s) - outbreak , infectious disease (medical specialty) , algorithm , computer science , statistical analysis , virology , medicine , disease , mathematics , statistics , pathology
SUMMARY Outbreaks of infectious diseases must be detected early for effective control measures to be introduced. When dealing with large amounts of data, automated procedures can usefully supplement traditional surveillance methods, provided that the wide variety of patterns and frequencies of infections are taken into account. This paper describes a robust system developed to process weekly reports of infections received at the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre. A simple regression algorithm is used to calculate suitable thresholds. Organisms exceeding their threshold are then flagged for further investigation.