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Long‐Term Demographic Interactions in Precensus England
Author(s) -
Bailey R. E.,
Chambers M. J.
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series a (statistics in society)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.103
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1467-985X
pISSN - 0964-1998
DOI - 10.2307/2983062
Subject(s) - term (time) , series (stratigraphy) , fertility , econometrics , demography , historical demography , statistics , demographic analysis , population , geography , research methodology , mathematics , sociology , geology , paleontology , physics , quantum mechanics
SUMMARY Modern time series methods are applied to the analysis of annual demographic data for England, 1541–1800. Evidence is found of non‐stationarity in the series and of cointegration among the series. Building on economic models of historical demography, optimal inferential procedures are implemented to estimate the structural parameters of long‐term equilibria among the variables. Evidence is found for a small, but significant, Malthusian ‘preventive check’ as well as interactions between fertility, mortality and nuptiality that are consistent with the predictions often made in demographic studies. Tentative experiments to detect the influence of environmental factors fail to reveal any significant impact on the estimates obtained.