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A Modified Logistic Model Applied to Human Populations
Author(s) -
Meade Nigel
Publication year - 1988
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series a (statistics in society)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.103
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1467-985X
pISSN - 0964-1998
DOI - 10.2307/2982996
Subject(s) - logistic function , logistic regression , variance (accounting) , constant (computer programming) , statistics , logistic distribution , econometrics , mathematics , term (time) , computer science , economics , physics , accounting , programming language , quantum mechanics
SUMMARY The use of the logistic curve for forecasting human populations considered by Leach is re‐examined. A modification of the use of the logistic curve is suggested, which changes the emphasis from fitting a logistic trend to providing a forecast logistic trend The assumption, used by Leach, that the variance of the additive disturbance term is constant is replaced by a more realistic supposition that the variance of the proportional disturbance is constant. The forecasting performance of the modified logistic model is shown to be superior to that of the model used by Leach.