A Matrix Regression Model for the Transition Probabilities in a Finite State Stochastic Process

SUMMARY In psychology, the free‐recall experiment is used to investigate the organization of items in memory. A model is introduced to describe the ordinal features of the responses to this experiment. This is essentially a model of the transition probabilities in a finite state stochastic process in discrete time. A matrix regression model is introduced to investigate the effects of various factors on organization. Simulation techniques are used to assess the goodness of fit of the model and to test hypotheses about the model parameters. Finally components of the log‐likelihood are used as diagnostic tools to check that there are no outliers. An example involving the recall of personalities' names is considered.