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Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature
Author(s) -
Murphy Allan H.,
Winkler Robert L.
Publication year - 1977
Publication title -
journal of the royal statistical society: series c (applied statistics)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.205
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1467-9876
pISSN - 0035-9254
DOI - 10.2307/2346866
Subject(s) - reliability (semiconductor) , precipitation , environmental science , statistics , reliability engineering , meteorology , mathematics , engineering , geography , thermodynamics , physics , power (physics)
Summary This paper briefly describes some results of operational and experimental programmes in the United States involving subjective probability forecasts of precipitation occurrence and of maximum and minimum temperatures. These results indicate that weather forecasters can formulate such forecasts in a reliable manner.