Deterministic Modeling without (Unwarranted) Apology
Author(s) -
Huffaker Ray G.
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
applied economic perspectives and policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.4
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 2040-5804
pISSN - 2040-5790
DOI - 10.2307/1350004
Subject(s) - assertion , randomness , probabilistic logic , economics , computer science , mathematical economics , positive economics , management science , econometrics , mathematics , statistics , artificial intelligence , programming language
Abstract The risk literature in agricultural economics asserts that deterministic methods ignore important sources of uncertainty, and thus strongly discourages their use to model economic behavior, performance, and welfare. This paper applies principles of randomness drawn from the philosophy of science literature to investigate this assertion and to formulate proper implications for the appropriate use of deterministic methods under uncertainty. The results specify the circumstances under which a deterministic approach offers a scientifically credible alternative to a probabilistic approach in accounting for uncertainty.