Premium
Weak‐ and Strong‐Form Rationality Tests of Market Analysts' Expectations of USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports
Author(s) -
Colling Phil L.,
Irwin Scott H.,
Zulauf Carl R.
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
applied economic perspectives and policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.4
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 2040-5804
pISSN - 2040-5790
DOI - 10.2307/1349505
Subject(s) - rationality , economics , financial economics , econometrics , monetary economics , business , political science , law
This study investigates the rationality of pre‐release expectations of experts concerning USDA Hogs and Pigs reports. The expectations are weak‐form rational in that they are unbiased predictors of actual report values and the forecast errors are not autocorrelated. In a test of strong‐form rationality, all of the economic variables examined were not related to the forecast errors. Thus, the evidence is that expectations of the Hogs and Pigs report are strong‐form rational.