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The Value of El Niño Forecasts in the Management of Salmon: A Stochastic Dynamic Assessment
Author(s) -
Costello Christopher J.,
Adams Richard M.,
Polasky Stephen
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
american journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.949
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1467-8276
pISSN - 0002-9092
DOI - 10.2307/1244062
Subject(s) - escapement , environmental science , pacific decadal oscillation , fisheries management , fishery , economics , el niño southern oscillation , climatology , biology , fishing , geology
The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of interannual variability in global climate. Variability in climate has been linked to variability in fisheries, specifically salmon stocks of the Pacific Northwest. The ability to forecast El Niño events already exists and is likely to improve in coming years. An accurate prediction may have value because it allows for better management decisions. In this article, we develop a bioeconomic model of the coho salmon fishery and derive the value of information from improved El Niño forecasting ability. We find that a perfect El Niño forecast results in an annual welfare gain of approximately $@@‐@@1 million, while imperfect forecasts lead to smaller gains. Results also suggest that optimal management in the face of uncertainty involves a “conservative” management strategy, resulting in lower harvest, higher wild fish escapement, and lower hatchery releases than management in the absence of such uncertainty.