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Informational Content of Government Hogs and Pigs Reports
Author(s) -
Carter Colin A.,
Galopin Carl A.
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
american journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.949
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1467-8276
pISSN - 0002-9092
DOI - 10.2307/1243577
Subject(s) - futures contract , government (linguistics) , futures market , value (mathematics) , economics , financial economics , content (measure theory) , price discovery , business , statistics , mathematics , mathematical analysis , linguistics , philosophy
We examine the value of the informational content of quarterly government reports which estimate forthcoming supplies of hogs and pigs. It is assumed that a hypothetical futures trader obtains the government reports one day in advance of their release. A futures market trading rule is established which uses early access to the reports together with a priori expectations of the reports' contents. We find the market information in the government reports is of little or no value to a futures trader in advance of the release date because this information is already incorporated in the futures price.