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A Bayesian Approach to Explaining Sequential Adoption of Components of a Technological Package
Author(s) -
Leathers Howard D.,
Smale Melinda
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
american journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.949
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1467-8276
pISSN - 0002-9092
DOI - 10.2307/1242825
Subject(s) - variety (cybernetics) , r package , order (exchange) , agriculture , computer science , bayesian probability , marketing , business , industrial organization , artificial intelligence , geography , computational science , archaeology , finance
Agricultural innovations are often promoted as a package—a new seed variety, a recommended fertilizer application, and other recommended cultivation practices. Nevertheless, many farmers adopt pieces of the package rather than the whole, in a sequential fashion. This paper presents a behavioral model which explains sequential adoption as a consequence of learning by adopting farmers. In order to learn more about the entire technological package, the farmer may adopt a part of the package. The model is shown to be consistent with observed patterns of sequential adoption.