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U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Nonsymmetric Disturbances
Author(s) -
Gallagher Paul
Publication year - 1987
Publication title -
american journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.949
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1467-8276
pISSN - 0002-9092
DOI - 10.2307/1242190
Subject(s) - standard deviation , yield (engineering) , econometrics , economics , estimation , maximum likelihood , statistics , mathematics , distribution (mathematics) , physics , management , mathematical analysis , thermodynamics
National average soybean yields are skewed with a relatively high chance of low yields. Maximum likelihood estimates support this hypothesis. Revised forecasts which account for skewed yields are positioned higher than forecasts based on the illusion of a symmetric distribution. Also, yield instability has been increasing steadily; the standard deviation of the soybean yield distribution is twenty‐five percent higher in the late 1980s than it was in the early 1970s.