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The Price‐Forecasting Performance of Futures Markets for Live Cattle and Hogs: A Disaggregated Analysis
Author(s) -
Martin Larry,
Garcia Philip
Publication year - 1981
Publication title -
american journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.949
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1467-8276
pISSN - 0002-9092
DOI - 10.2307/1239556
Subject(s) - futures contract , cash , economics , financial economics , futures market , econometrics , finance
Four hypotheses about the price‐forecasting performance of live cattle and hog futures are tested using disaggregated data. Live cattle futures are found to have inadequate forecasting performance for each hypothesis and do not provide better forecasts than lagged cash prices. Live hog futures perform well for three hypotheses, but not when economic conditions are unstable. Hog futures provide better forecasts than lagged cash prices. The analysis does not support the contention that these futures markets are agencies for rational price formation.