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Analysis of the Accuracy of USDA Crop Forecasts
Author(s) -
Gunnelson G.,
Dobson W. D.,
Pamperin S.
Publication year - 1972
Publication title -
american journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.949
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1467-8276
pISSN - 0002-9092
DOI - 10.2307/1238541
Subject(s) - crop , environmental science , crop production , production (economics) , agricultural economics , agricultural science , economics , geography , agriculture , forestry , archaeology , macroeconomics
Accuracy of USDA crop forecasts increased moderately over the 1929–1970 period. However, USDA's first forecasts of crop production tended to underestimate crop size and the size of year‐to‐year changes in production. USDA also undercompensates for errors in earlier forecasts when developing revised crop forecasts.