Premium
Quarterly Models to Predict Cash Prices of Pork Bellies
Author(s) -
Foote Richard J.,
Craven John A.,
Williams Robert R.
Publication year - 1972
Publication title -
american journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.949
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1467-8276
pISSN - 0002-9092
DOI - 10.2307/1238536
Subject(s) - cash , economics , futures contract , econometrics , commodity , quarter (canadian coin) , econometric model , index (typography) , financial economics , consumption (sociology) , agricultural economics , macroeconomics , finance , computer science , geography , social science , archaeology , sociology , world wide web
Quarterly three‐equation models designed to predict wholesale cash prices for fresh pork bellies at Chicago, quarterly consumption, and end‐of‐quarter stocks were developed and fitted by three‐stage least squares based on data for 1957–1971. This is the first published econometric study relating to this highly volatile commodity. The major methodological contribution is a demand‐for‐storage equation that combines a Nerlove‐type price expectations adjustment formulation with expectations on the supply side based on data published in the USDA quarterly Hogs and Pigs . Useful forecasts of both cash prices and futures quotations were given through the first half of 1972.