Open AccessSignificance of age-sex structure in defining population policy measures
Author(s) -
Ivan Marinković
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
zbornik matice srpske za društvene nauke/zbornik matice srpske za društvene nauke
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2406-0836
pISSN - 0352-5732
DOI - 10.2298/zmsdn1867537m
Subject(s) - life expectancy , population , demography , fertility , projections of population growth , emigration , population ageing , age structure , immigration , population growth , demographic analysis , cohort , birth rate , population projection , demographic economics , population momentum , total fertility rate , cohort effect , geography , family planning , economics , sociology , medicine , research methodology , archaeology
Serbia in the second decade of the 21st century is one of the demographically oldest countries of the world with marked depopulation. The prolongation of life expectancy and the long-term fertility below the level needed for population replacement, as well as the emigration of predominantly young people, are the main factors for demographic aging in Serbia and the current decrease in population size. As a result of decades-long adverse demographic trends, the age structure is increasingly becoming a limiting factor in defining population policy measures. In the period between years 1991 and 2011, the cohort of women aged between 15-49 years decreased by 250 thousand, and at the same time the population of women in the so-called optimal reproductive age (20-34 years) decreased by almost 90 thousand. Mathematical simulations, in which the current distribution of the population of Serbia by age and sex is projected in the coming decades, will show what the result can be expected with the growth of fertility, the prolongation of life expectancy and influx of young immigrants. In particular, the focus will be on the constraints imposed by the inherited age structure on the population dynamics. The notion of demographic inertia will be considered and whether the depopulation effect is unstoppable in the next few decades. We discuss possibilities and constraints in establishing population policy measures.