Open AccessBEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
Author(s) -
María de la Fe López-Domínguez,
Sary Levy-Carciente,
José Contreras,
Pedro César Paiva-Mata
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
análise econômica
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2176-5456
pISSN - 0102-9924
DOI - 10.22456/2176-5456.18272
Subject(s) - economics , consumption (sociology) , yield (engineering) , oil price , oil consumption , time horizon , production (economics) , term (time) , oil production , econometrics , macroeconomics , monetary economics , petroleum engineering , engineering , social science , materials science , physics , finance , quantum mechanics , sociology , automotive engineering , metallurgy
Energy largely determines the characteristics of the global economy, hence the importance of fully understanding the behavior of the oil market in its current geo-economic and political environment. Starting from the basic relations of the global oil market and their interactions with macroeconomic variables, a nonlinear dynamic, structural and systemic model for this market is developed, which simulates the price, production and consumption of oil, and the accumulation of inventories. Model tests show satisfactory performance in the simulation of the known past in a medium-term horizon, 1995-2008. A sensitivity study performed for the same period yield some interesting conclusions about the behavior of the global oil market, such as the irrelevance of the structural factors in the soaring rise in oil prices in 2008.