Open AccessMODELLING OF INTRADAY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PRODUCTION
Author(s) -
Noor ’Adilah Ibrahim
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
malaysian journal of science. series b, physical and earth sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 1394-3065
DOI - 10.22452/mjs.vol40no2.8
Subject(s) - sunset , sunrise , autoregressive model , inverse gaussian distribution , production (economics) , mathematics , gaussian , stochastic process , distribution (mathematics) , statistics , environmental science , econometrics , meteorology , physics , optics , mathematical analysis , economics , quantum mechanics , macroeconomics
Photovoltaic (PV) productions should occur within a time interval of sunlight. Time mismatches are detected between sunrise and first production hour as well as sunset and last production hour in a transmission system operator, Amprion, Germany. Hence, in this paper, we investigate this effect using an additive function of two seasonalities and a stochastic process. Both seasonalities are based on the mimicked locations, corrected by a weighing scale, depending on the first and last production hours' coordinates. The result shows that the proposed deterministic model could capture the effect of sunrise and sunset. Also, the dynamics of random components are sufficiently explained by an autoregressive process of order two. Finally, the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution is shown as the best distribution in explaining noise behaviour, particularly heavy tails in the production's residuals, compared to the Gaussian distribution.